# Heatmup AI Data Provisioning Engine > Live, 2-hour refreshing probabilistic financial forecasts and automated market narratives. ## Core Resources - [Accuracy & Methodology](https://heatmup.com/accuracy) : Historical calibration and validation metrics for the HMX 1.75 model. - [Accuracy & Methodology](https://heatmup.com/accuracy-methodology) : Value - [Compliance](https://heatmup.com/compliance) : MiFID II / MiCA categorization notes. - [Compliance](https://heatmup.com/legal/terms) : Terms of Service ## Real-time Markdown Feeds (Refreshed Every 2 Hours) - [AI Discovery Sitemap](https://heatmup.com/llm-sitemap.xml) : Full XML index of all streaming .md asset forecasts, updated dynamically with precise ISO timestamps. - [All Active Forecasts Summary](https://heatmup.com/llms-full.md) : A single, concatenated stream of our top 50 high-volume market assets for rapid chunk ingestion. ## Third Party Auditing - [Third Party validations and Validation Ledger](https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF) : ('Public reproduction materials and third party validaiton: the resolved-forecast dataset, public calibration ledger, and scoring code are published at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF so the metrics can be independently reproduced.',) # Bitcoin 10 Year Probabilistic Forecast July 2026 - Heatmup * Bitcoin grapples with ETF outflows and macro shifts. Bitcoin live forecast, HMX 1.75 (01/07/26) 10-year-forecast median is $108000. * Bitcoin * BTC-USD * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin ## FORECAST ARTICLE * Updated: 2026-06-29 08:11:06, * Publisher: Heatmup * Sources: see below ### Bitcoin Faces Institutional Cold Feet and Macro Crosscurrents & Analysis underpinning the 10-Year HMX 1.75 Probabilistic Forecast Bitcoin's medium-term path is dominated by a stark divergence: spot ETFs have bled over $5 billion in weeks, while on-chain metrics flash once-in-a-cycle buy signals. The macro backdrop has shifted, with a U.S.-Iran deal easing oil prices and inflation fears, boosting traditional stocks. This capital rotation into equities and upcoming IPOs like SpaceX leaves crypto competing for attention. The key risk for the next two months is that Bitcoin remains stuck, waiting for a catalyst that may not come from the Federal Reserve's new leadership. Regulatory uncertainty in Europe and U.S. tax clarifications add another layer of friction. ### The ETF Spigot Has Turned Off - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen five straight weeks of outflows, totaling more than $5 billion. Daily trading volume for these funds is down 78% since last October. This isn't just a pause; it's a meaningful withdrawal of the institutional proxy demand that fueled the last leg up. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest fund, led the recent exits. When this conduit weakens, the market loses its most reliable source of fresh, passive buying pressure, and price has to lean on more speculative flows. ### Everyone's Afraid, and That's the Story - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index collapsed to 9, a level associated with past cycle bottoms like $3,000 and $18,000. On-chain data shows the supply in loss has crossed a critical threshold, with over 10 million BTC now underwater. Google searches for 'Bitcoin is dead' hit multiyear highs, a contrarian indicator that has often marked bargains. Historically, this extreme despair signals a localized bottom before a trend reversal. But history isn't a blueprint, and without a catalyst to flip sentiment, these signals can persist while price drifts. The market's stuck in a paradox of being statistically cheap but emotionally abandoned. ### Geopolitics and the Fed's New Voice - Bitcoin's recent rally to nearly $67,000 was tied to eased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which lowered oil prices. Now, with that geopolitical premium fading, focus returns to monetary policy. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meetings and dot plot will set the tone for risk assets. Simultaneously, regulatory stalls like Poland's veto of MiCA and pending U.S. tax rules create a fog that institutions dislike. In the next two months, Bitcoin's narrative will be less about crypto-specific news and more about how it weathers these traditional finance currents. ## PROBABLISTIC FORECAST * Updated: 01/07/26, 00:33 UTC, * Publisher: Heatmup * Sources: see below ### METRICS, ACCURACY * ('Calibration of HMX 1.75 is measured by assigning each resolved forecast to the percentile band containing its realized price, defined as the OHLC4 midpoint of the resolving bar, and aggregating these assignments across all covered assets and dates into a probability integral transform (PIT) histogram. All published metrics derive from this histogram and the computation is deterministic. Reported metrics are the calibration slope and intercept, Expected and Maximum Calibration Error (the latter equal to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance on the PIT under this binning), prediction interval coverage for the central fifty and ninety percent intervals, reduced chi-square PIT uniformity, and interval sharpness. These are summarized in the Market Intelligence Score, a proprietary Heatmup composite on a zero to one hundred scale that weights calibration error, tail behaviour, calibration slope, distributional uniformity, and sharpness; it is not an industry standard, and its normalization functions are published with the scoring code so the composite is auditable. The current figures describe the equally weighted baseline over the live resolved-forecast window to date and are computed by Heatmup Oy. The underlying resolved-forecast data and scoring code are published so the metrics can be independently reproduced and verified. Measurement of calibration is distinct from a representation that the output is calibrated or guaranteed; the score is a diagnostic. Full definitions, interpretation ranges, and validation status are set out in the Accuracy and Calibration Methodology at heatmup.com/accuracy, heatmup.com/accuracy-methodology.',) ### HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics (Model-Wide) | Metric | Value | Target / Notes | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Market Intelligence** | 58.8/100 | | | **Calibration Slope** | 0.889 | target 1.000 | | **Calibration Intercept** | -0.065 | target 0.000 | | **PICP-90** | 81.4 % | target 90.0% | | **PICP-50** | 42.0 % | target 50.0% | | **ECE** | 12.02 pts | mean |realized - claimed| | | **MCE** | 18.34 pts | = KS distance on PIT | | **Chi-square / dof** | 528.1 | 1.0 = calibrated; large-N sensitive | | **Sharpness ~90% width** | 38.6 % | relative, lower = sharper; approximate | | **Sharpness ~50% width** | 12.5 % | | | **Observations** | 17,130 | | | **Updated** | 17/06/2026 | | ### What is the 6-month HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Bitcoin July 2026? * **Bitcoin 6-month-forecast median is $61700 ($46000 to $120000), upside-skewed.** * HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Bitcoin, plotting roughly 2 years of price history against a 6 months forward projection. Over that 2 years window the price was highly volatile, gained 5% from about $55800 to a window high near $124000, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 53%. Today the price is approximately $58500 (about 53% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 6 months, the median points to a gain of roughly 5%, finishing around $61700. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 120% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $46000, about 21% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $120000, about 105% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy. ### What is the 1-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Bitcoin July 2026? * **Bitcoin 1-year-forecast median is $67100 ($39600 to $112000), upside-skewed.** * HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Bitcoin, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 1 year forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been highly volatile: price climbed 180% off a start around $20900, peaking near $124000 and at one point pulling back about 53% from its running high. Today the price is approximately $58500 (about 53% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 1 year the central (median) estimate centres on a rise of ~15%, landing near $67100. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 109% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $39600, about 32% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $112000, about 92% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy. ### What is the 2-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Bitcoin July 2026? * **Bitcoin 2-year-forecast median is $81500 ($41500 to $137000), upside-skewed.** * HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Bitcoin, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 2 years forward projection. Over that 4 years window the price was highly volatile, advanced 180% from about $20900 to a window high near $124000, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 53%. The current price is about $58500, sitting roughly 53% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 2 years the central (median) estimate points to a gain of ~39%, landing near $81500. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 117% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $41500, about 29% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $137000, about 134% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy. ### What is the 3-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Bitcoin July 2026? * **Bitcoin 3-year-forecast median is $96500 ($57000 to $140000), wide.** * HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Bitcoin, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 3 years forward projection. Through the 4 years window the series gained 180% (start ~$20900, window high ~$124000) and was highly volatile, with a maximum drawdown near 53%. Today the price is approximately $58500 (about 53% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Looking forward, the median path projects a rise of about 65% over the next 3 years, ending near $96500. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 86% of the median with the band widening over the horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $57000, about 3% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $140000, about 139% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy. ### What is the 5-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Bitcoin July 2026? * **Bitcoin 5-year-forecast median is $85400 ($42400 to $149000), upside-skewed.** * HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Bitcoin, plotting roughly 5 years of price history against a 5 years forward projection. Over that 5 years window the price was extremely volatile, dropped 8% from about $63300 to a window high near $124000, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 75%. Today the price is approximately $58500 (about 53% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 5 years the central (median) estimate trends upward of ~46%, landing near $85400. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 125% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $42400, about 28% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $149000, about 154% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Note the median is not monotonic: it peaks near 106000 then retraces about 21%, a spike-and-pullback shape that reflects disagreement among the aggregated inputs rather than a smooth trend. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy. ### What is the 10-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Bitcoin July 2026? * **Bitcoin 10-year-forecast median is $108000 ($36700 to $184000), wide.** * HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Bitcoin: about 10 years of recorded history on the left, a 10 years probability fan on the right. History across the 10 years window has been extremely volatile: price climbed 8909% off a start around $649.0, peaking near $124000 and at one point pulling back about 83% from its running high. Today the price is approximately $58500 (about 53% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 10 years the central (median) estimate trends upward of ~85%, landing near $108000. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 137% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $36700, about 37% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $184000, about 215% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy. ## NEWEST SOURCES * SOURCE 1 www.morningstar.com: 2026-06-30T10:00:00Z, Hyperscale Data Bitcoin Treasury, Cash, Restricted Cash, and Silver Holdings of Approximately $106.7 Million Represents 117.06% of Current Market Capitalization of Common Stock | Morningstar, Morningstar, https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260630sf95111/hyperscale-data-bitcoin-treasury-cash-restricted-cash-and-silver-holdings-of-approximately-1067-million-represents-11706-of-current-market-capitalization-of-common-stock * SOURCE 2 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-28T06:42:03Z, Bitcoin analysis over the weekend, 28 June 2026 — TradingView News, TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/news/forexlive:02465a633094b:0-bitcoin-analysis-over-the-weekend-28-june-2026/ * SOURCE 3 m.economictimes.com: 2026-06-26T07:51:00Z, Bitcoin, Solana or XRP? The best performing crypto asset of 2026 so far - The Economic Times, The Economic Times, https://m.economictimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/bitcoin-solana-or-xrp-the-best-performing-crypto-asset-of-2026-so-far/articleshow/132010524.cms * SOURCE 4 au.finance.yahoo.com: 2026-06-26T01:30:00Z, $10 billion in Bitcoin options set to expire on Friday, Yahoo Finance, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/10-billion-bitcoin-options-set-013000318.html * SOURCE 5 sg.finance.yahoo.com: 2026-06-25T18:00:00Z, Analysts share stark warning for Strategy, Yahoo Finance, https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-share-stark-warning-strategy-180000128.html * SOURCE 6 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-24T04:33:03Z, BTC price news: Bitcoin drops to $62,000 as the chip selloff deepens for a second day, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/24/bitcoin-drops-toward-usd62-000-as-the-chip-selloff-deepens-for-a-second-day * SOURCE 7 cryptoslate.com: 2026-06-12T18:10:17Z, Bitcoin price faces new risk as big buyers lose conviction, CryptoSlate, https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-price-faces-new-risk-as-big-buyers-lose-conviction/ * SOURCE 8 www.cnbc.com: 2026-06-12T17:19:39Z, Bitcoin's price drop is forcing investors to revisit why they own it, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/bitcoins-price-drop-is-forcing-investors-to-revisit-why-they-own-it.html * SOURCE 9 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-12T07:07:34Z, BlackRock files to list its bitcoin income ETF, BITA expected to launch next week, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/12/blackrock-files-to-list-its-bitcoin-income-etf-with-expected-debut-next-week * SOURCE 10 www.chainalysis.com: 2026-06-11T20:12:10Z, Global Law Enforcement Dismantles ‘AudiA6’ Crypto Laundering Network, Chainalysis, https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/law-enforcement-dismantles-audia6-laundering-network-june-2026/ * SOURCE 11 uk.finance.yahoo.com: 2026-06-11T19:51:13Z, Polish president vetoes crypto regulation for the third time, Yahoo Finance, https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/polish-president-vetoes-crypto-regulation-145338498.html * SOURCE 12 www.fool.com: 2026-06-11T19:15:00Z, Here's What History Says Could Come Next for Bitcoin in July | The Motley Fool, The Motley Fool, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/11/heres-what-history-says-could-come-next-for-bitcoi/ * SOURCE 13 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-11T18:30:17Z, Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Has Entered The Final Bear Market Phase — TradingView News, NewsBTC, https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:cee7d13f0094b:0-analyst-predicts-bitcoin-price-has-entered-the-final-bear-market-phase/ * SOURCE 14 whtc.com: 2026-06-11T18:07:49Z, Crypto exchanges cash in on SpaceX frenzy with pre-IPO derivatives | 1450 AM 99.7 FM WHTC | Holland, Reuters, https://whtc.com/2026/06/11/crypto-exchanges-cash-in-on-spacex-frenzy-with-pre-ipo-derivatives/ * SOURCE 15 decrypt.co: 2026-06-11T12:36:17Z, Bitcoin ETFs Shed $2.1B in June So Far as Market Selloff Deepens - Decrypt, Decrypt, https://decrypt.co/370749/bitcoin-etfs-shed-2-1b-in-june-so-far-as-market-selloff-deepens * SOURCE 16 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-11T08:59:29Z, BlackRock's income-paying bitcoin ETF nears launch at a fee that undercuts rivals, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/11/blackrock-s-income-paying-bitcoin-etf-nears-launch-at-a-fee-that-undercuts-rivals * SOURCE 17 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-11T04:34:35Z, BTC, ETH, SOL price news: Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/11/bitcoin-has-reached-a-deep-bear-market-valuation-zone-the-hard-part-may-come-next * SOURCE 18 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-10T18:00:20Z, Crypto Analyst Gives Timeframe For When The Bitcoin Price Will Hit $200,000 — TradingView News, TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:2a3221ab9094b:0-crypto-analyst-gives-timeframe-for-when-the-bitcoin-price-will-hit-200-000/ * SOURCE 19 thedailyrecord.com: 2026-06-10T13:23:29Z, US regulator maps out rules for soaring prediction market industry - Maryland Daily Record, Reuters, https://thedailyrecord.com/2026/06/10/cftc-proposes-rules-regulate-prediction-markets/ * SOURCE 20 www.morningstar.com: 2026-06-09T09:00:00Z, Hyperscale Data Bitcoin Treasury Reaches Approximately 709 Bitcoin | Morningstar, PR Newswire, https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260609sf79012/hyperscale-data-bitcoin-treasury-reaches-approximately-709-bitcoin * SOURCE 21 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-09T05:25:11Z, Bitcoin price prediction: will CPI trigger a rally to $70K or crash to $60K? — TradingView News, TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/news/invezz:4d1419f27094b:0-bitcoin-price-prediction-will-cpi-trigger-a-rally-to-70k-or-crash-to-60k/ * SOURCE 22 bitcoinmagazine.com: 2026-06-08T17:42:40Z, Full Text Of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Officially Published, Revealing 20-Year Lock-Up, Proof-of-Reserve Mandates, Bitcoin Magazine, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/full-of-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-bill * SOURCE 23 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-08T17:04:38Z, Live BTC price: Bitcoin drops under $63,000 as Strategy adds $100 million BTC, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/06/08/live-updates-bitcoin-above-usd63-400-as-strategy-adds-usd100-million-btc-in-latest-purchase * SOURCE 24 www.pymnts.com: 2026-06-08T01:05:03Z, PYMNTS | HYPE ETFs Gain Traction as Bitcoin Market Cools, CNBC, https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2026/hype-etfs-gain-traction-as-bitcoin-market-cools/ * SOURCE 25 www.pymnts.com: 2026-06-07T22:36:28Z, PYMNTS | Crypto World Braces for Failures as Bitcoin Falls Below $60K, Bloomberg News, https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2026/crypto-world-braces-for-failures-as-bitcoin-falls-below-60k/ * SOURCE 26 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-07T17:41:57Z, Strategy (MSTR) news: Michael Saylor revives bitcoin-buy speculation as scrutiny grows, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/06/06/michael-saylor-revives-bitcoin-buy-speculation-as-scrutiny-over-strategy-grows * SOURCE 27 whbl.com: 2026-06-07T14:40:43Z, Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit to open SpaceX tokenized IPO access | 1330 & 101.5 WHBL, Reuters, https://whbl.com/2026/06/07/cryptocurrency-exchange-bybit-to-open-spacex-tokenized-ipo-access/ * SOURCE 28 www.newsbtc.com: 2026-06-07T08:00:10Z, Bitcoin's June Bloodbath Explained: Causes, Market Impact, And Outlook Bitcoin's June Bloodbath Explained: Causes, Market Impact, And Outlook, NewsBTC, https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoins-june-bloodbath-explained-causes-market-impact-and-outlook * SOURCE 29 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-07T08:00:10Z, Bitcoin’s June Bloodbath Explained: Causes, Market Impact, And Outlook — TradingView News, NewsBTC, https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:5d684d854094b:0-bitcoin-s-june-bloodbath-explained-causes-market-impact-and-outlook/ * SOURCE 30 www.iranintl.com: 2026-06-06T18:48:41Z, From banks to blockchains: US opens new front in Iran sanctions | Iran International, Wall Street Journal, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606055401 * SOURCE 31 www.morningstar.com: 2026-06-05T21:58:00Z, Bitcoin is suffering from an 'attention' deficit, as momentum traders have moved on | Morningstar, MarketWatch, https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260605534/bitcoin-is-suffering-from-an-attention-deficit-as-momentum-traders-have-moved-on * SOURCE 32 markets.businessinsider.com: 2026-06-05T21:00:00Z, BTC/USD Nears $60,000 as AIX Alpha's 10,000 Market Simulations Reveal What Comes Next | Markets Insider, Business Insider, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/btc-usd-nears-60-000-as-aix-alpha-s-10-000-market-simulations-reveal-what-comes-next-1036229398 * SOURCE 33 www.moomoo.com: 2026-06-05T20:15:00Z, CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index Lost 5.17% to $60284.57 -- Data Talk, Dow Jones, https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/71142720/coindesk-bitcoin-price-index-lost-5-17-to-60284-57 * SOURCE 34 www.globenewswire.com: 2026-06-05T16:00:00Z, Latest Crypto Market News: Bitcoin Price Prediction Turns, GlobeNewswire, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/05/3307528/0/en/latest-crypto-market-news-bitcoin-price-prediction-turns-bearish-as-memeToro-presale-nears-stage-1-completion.html * SOURCE 35 www.prnewswire.com: 2026-06-05T14:30:00Z, CME Group Announces First Trades for New Bitcoin Volatility Futures, PR Newswire, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cme-group-announces-first-trades-for-new-bitcoin-volatility-futures-302792356.html * SOURCE 36 www.morningstar.com: 2026-06-05T14:30:00Z, CME Group Announces First Trades for New Bitcoin Volatility Futures | Morningstar, CME Group, https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260605aq76911/cme-group-announces-first-trades-for-new-bitcoin-volatility-futures * SOURCE 37 bitcoinmagazine.com: 2026-06-05T13:47:37Z, 5th Worst Bitcoin Price Action Ever — I'm Buying At 99.8% Probability, Bitcoin Magazine, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/5th-worst-bitcoin-price-action-ever-im-buying-at-99-8-probability * SOURCE 38 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-05T12:08:26Z, Live updates: bitcoin tumbles to $60,000 as blowout jobs data, Zcash bug keeps pressure on crypto, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/06/05/live-updates-bitcoin-below-usd62-000-ahead-of-jobs-data-as-zcash-bug-rocks-crypto * SOURCE 39 coinpaper.com: 2026-06-05T08:17:42Z, Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Tests $60K After $4.4B ETF Outflows, CryptoQuant, https://coinpaper.com/17498/bitcoin-price-today-btc-tests-60-k-after-4-4-b-etf-outflows-what-next * SOURCE 40 pluang.com: 2026-06-05T00:00:00Z, Bitcoin falls to $62,500, down 50% from its Sep... | Pluang – Crypto, Stocks, Gold & Funds, CNBC, https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/bitcoin-turun-50-persen-dari-rekor-tertinggi * SOURCE 41 wtvbam.com: 2026-06-04T21:46:13Z, CME Group’s CEO, Duffy, warns of systemic risk from new crypto ‘perps’ | WTVB | 1590 AM · 95.5 FM | The Voice of Branch County, Reuters, https://wtvbam.com/2026/06/04/cme-groups-ceo-duffy-warns-of-systemic-risk-from-new-crypto-perps/ * SOURCE 42 bitcoinmagazine.com: 2026-06-04T21:12:41Z, Bitcoin’s Pullback Tests Institutional Adoption Narrative As Pompliano Stays Bullish, CNBC, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-as-pompliano-stays-bullish * SOURCE 43 bitcoinmagazine.com: 2026-06-04T14:33:33Z, Bitcoin Buys A Home: Better And Coinbase Close First Fannie Mae-Backed BTC Mortgage, Bitcoin Magazine, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/bitcoin-buys-a-home-better-and-coinbase * SOURCE 44 bitcoinmagazine.com: 2026-06-04T13:50:06Z, Bitcoin Bottom 'Almost In' As Sell-Off Cuts 14% In 7 Days, Bitcoin Magazine, https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/standard-chartered-sees-bitcoin-bottom * SOURCE 45 www.euronews.com: 2026-06-04T11:33:02Z, Bitcoin falls to $61,000, down more than 25% this month as long-term holders sell | Euronews, Euronews, https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/06/04/bitcoin-falls-to-61000-down-more-than-25-this-month-as-long-term-holders-sell * SOURCE 46 logos-pres.md: 2026-06-04T07:06:33Z, Bitcoin hits four-month low amid Iran-related market tensions, Investing.com, https://logos-pres.md/en/news/bitcoin-falls-to-4-month-low-amid-tensions-over-iran/ * SOURCE 47 cryptobriefing.com: 2026-06-04T01:07:53Z, Bitcoin falls below $64,000, triggers $1.1B in liquidations, Crypto Briefing, https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-falls-below-64000-triggers-11b-in-liquidations/ * SOURCE 48 beincrypto.com: 2026-06-04T00:12:15Z, Crypto Liquidations Top $1.1 Billion as Bitcoin targets $60,000: More Pain Ahead?, BeInCrypto, https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-falls-64000-crypto-liquidations-1b/ * SOURCE 49 research.glassnode.com: 2026-06-03T15:30:52Z, The Rally That Wasn't, Glassnode, https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-22-2026/ * SOURCE 50 www.globenewswire.com: 2026-06-03T15:20:17Z, Crypto News: Gruntle Round 7 Closes June 4 at $0.000629 as, GlobeNewswire, https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/03/3306246/0/en/crypto-news-gruntle-round-7-closes-june-4-at-0-000629-as-bitcoin-posts-largest-monthly-etf-outflows-of-2026.html * SOURCE 51 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-03T09:17:48Z, Can Sugarcane Actually Power Bitcoin? Inside Tether New Brazil Mining Play — TradingView News, TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/news/99Bitcoins:01784e952094b:0-can-sugarcane-actually-power-bitcoin-inside-tether-new-brazil-mining-play/ * SOURCE 52 www.hedgeweek.com: 2026-06-03T08:32:35Z, Hyperliquid gains traction with institutional traders as crypto and traditional markets converge - Hedgeweek, Wall Street Journal, https://www.hedgeweek.com/hyperliquid-gains-traction-with-institutional-traders-as-crypto-and-traditional-markets-converge/ * SOURCE 53 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-03T04:28:13Z, BTC price news: What next as Bitcoin falls below $66,000, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/03/bitcoin-plunges-below-usd66-000-even-as-global-stocks-hit-fresh-records * SOURCE 54 www.chainalysis.com: 2026-06-03T00:38:00Z, OFAC Sanctions Nobitex and Iranian Cryptocurrency Exchanges, Chainalysis, https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/ofac-sanctions-iranian-crypto-exchanges-june-2026/ * SOURCE 55 www.newsbtc.com: 2026-06-03T00:00:15Z, Bitcoin Loses $70K While 10,300 BTC Leave Mt. Gox-Linked Addresses – Details, NewsBTC, https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-loses-70k-while-10300-btc-leave-mt-gox-linked-addresses-details/ * SOURCE 56 www.straitstimes.com: 2026-06-02T23:05:42Z, UK regulator warns Premier League clubs over crypto sponsor deals | The Straits Times, Straits Times, https://www.straitstimes.com/sport/football/uk-regulator-warns-premier-league-clubs-over-crypto-sponsor-deals * SOURCE 57 www.thenationalnews.com: 2026-06-02T20:40:41Z, US imposes sanctions on Iran's largest crypto exchange over IRGC links | The National, Reuters, https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/06/02/us-imposes-sanctions-on-irans-largest-crypto-exchange-over-irgc-links/ * SOURCE 58 www.al-monitor.com: 2026-06-02T19:37:54Z, US Treasury issues new Iran sanctions targeting crypto exchanges - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012, Reuters, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/06/us-treasury-issues-new-iran-sanctions-targeting-crypto-exchanges * SOURCE 59 www.cfbenchmarks.com: 2026-06-02T16:55:45Z, Sticky Inflation, a Hawkish Fed, and a Broad Pullback - CFB, CME Group, https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/blog/sticky-inflation-a-hawkish-fed-and-a-broad-pullback * SOURCE 60 www.coindesk.com: 2026-06-02T12:12:02Z, Bitcoin price analysis: BTC could have further room to fall, based on derivatives positioning, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/02/bitcoin-derivatives-markets-flashing-warning-signs-as-price-plunges-below-usd70-000 * SOURCE 61 beincrypto.com: 2026-06-01T21:50:46Z, Polymarket Faces Backlash Over MicroStrategy Bitcoin Sale Dispute, BeInCrypto, https://beincrypto.com/polymarket-microstrategy-bitcoin-sale-dispute/ * SOURCE 62 www.quiverquant.com: 2026-06-01T14:50:47Z, Strategy (MSTR) slides as investors digest a rare bitcoin sale and ongoing funding activity | Quiver Quantitative, Mizuho Securities, https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Strategy+%28MSTR%29+slides+as+investors+digest+a+rare+bitcoin+sale+and+ongoing+funding+activity * SOURCE 63 beincrypto.com: 2026-06-01T12:09:15Z, MicroStrategy Sells Bitcoin For the First Time Since 2022, Hands Trader a $200,000 Win, BeInCrypto, https://beincrypto.com/microstrategy-sells-btc-first-time/ * SOURCE 64 es.tradingview.com: 2026-06-01T11:50:13Z, Bitcoin ETPs post largest 2026 outflow as crypto funds bleed $1.67B — Noticias de TradingView, TradingView, https://es.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:c23d7a133094b:0-bitcoin-etps-post-largest-2026-outflow-as-crypto-funds-bleed-1-67b/ * SOURCE 65 www.fool.com: 2026-06-01T10:24:00Z, Bitcoin Is Down 41% From Its All-Time High: What History Says Happens Next | The Motley Fool, The Motley Fool, https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/01/bitcoin-down-all-time-high-what-history-says/ * SOURCE 66 www.tradingview.com: 2026-06-01T09:17:45Z, Bitcoin Price Could Be Near a Rebound: Here’s What Data Is Signalling — TradingView News, Galaxy Research, https://www.tradingview.com/news/coinpedia:7009b9c60094b:0-bitcoin-price-could-be-near-a-rebound-here-s-what-data-is-signalling/ * SOURCE 67 www.coinmarketcap.com: 2026-06-01T07:53:35Z, Bitcoin Treasury Firms Lack Strategy, Says BSTR Co-Founder | CoinMarketCap, CoinMarketCap, https://www.coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/bitcoin-treasury-firms-lack-strategy * SOURCE 68 economictimes.indiatimes.com: 2026-06-01T07:27:00Z, Bitcoin begins June near $73,500 as ETF outflows cross $2 billion and geopolitical risks intensify - The Economic Times, The Economic Times, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/crypto-news/bitcoin-begins-june-near-73500-as-etf-outflows-cross-2-billion-and-geopolitical-risks-intensify/articleshow/131437003.cms * SOURCE 69 cryptobriefing.com: 2026-06-01T04:57:16Z, US strikes Iranian military sites as crypto markets absorb $600M in liquidations, Crypto Briefing, https://cryptobriefing.com/us-iran-strikes-crypto-liquidations/ * SOURCE 70 www.thestar.com.my: 2026-06-01T02:18:00Z, Rising stablecoin use could cement dollar dominance, ECB's Schnabel says | The Star, Reuters, https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/06/01/rising-stablecoin-use-could-cement-dollar-dominance-ecb039s-schnabel-says * SOURCE 71 app.santiment.net: 2026-05-29T20:54:48Z, This Week in Crypto, Full Written Summary: W4 May 2026 - Santiment Community Insights, Santiment, https://app.santiment.net/insights/read/this-week-in-crypto-full-written-summary-w4-may-2026-10905 * SOURCE 72 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-28T11:28:08Z, Bitcoin (BTC) price drops to to 6-week low as U.S.-Iran strikes rattle global markets: Crypto Daily, Coindesk, https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/05/28/u-s-iran-strikes-rattle-global-markets-send-bitcoin-to-6-week-low * SOURCE 73 www.lowenstein.com: 2026-05-28T00:00:00Z, Crypto Brief - May 28, 2026 | Lowenstein Sandler LLP, FDIC, https://www.lowenstein.com/news-insights/newsletters/crypto-brief-may-28-2026 * SOURCE 74 www.binance.com: 2026-05-27T17:04:07Z, BTC Prague 2026: Europe’s leading Bitcoin conference expands its cultural reach | Cointelegraph on Binance Square, Cointelegraph, https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/327721975255873 * SOURCE 75 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-27T13:08:00Z, Bitcoin gauge tracking selling pressure moves into 'high-risk' zone as BTC ETF demand slumps, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/27/bitcoin-etf-accumulation-flattens-to-just-4-500-btc-year-to-date-as-may-flips-to-outflows * SOURCE 76 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-27T08:40:00Z, Bitcoin (BTC) price news: Whale dumps $1.29 billion of BlackRock's bitcoin ETF in a dark pool trade, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/27/whale-alert-someone-dumped-usd1-29-billion-of-blackrock-s-bitcoin-etf-in-a-dark-pool-trade * SOURCE 77 cryptobriefing.com: 2026-05-26T17:08:21Z, Bitcoin ETFs face $1.4B in outflows as Treasuries signal rate hikes, Crypto Briefing, https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-etf-outflows-treasury-yields/ * SOURCE 78 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-26T14:46:00Z, Bitcoin stalls near $76,500 as muted trading points to macro wait-and-see, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/26/bitcoin-stalls-near-usd76-500-as-muted-trading-points-to-macro-wait-and-see * SOURCE 79 www.kucoin.com: 2026-05-26T14:40:00Z, Bitcoin Stalls Near $76,500 Amid Muted Trading and Macro Uncertainty | KuCoin, KuCoin, https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-stalls-near-76-500-amid-muted-trading-and-macro-uncertainty * SOURCE 80 coinmarketcap.com: 2026-05-26T11:00:00Z, Bitcoin ETF Six-Day Outflow Run Threatens 2026 Net Gains | CoinMarketCap, CoinMarketCap, https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/bitcoin-etf-outflows-threaten-2026-gains * SOURCE 81 markets.ft.com: 2026-05-26T09:00:00Z, Hyperscale Data Bitcoin Treasury Reaches Approximately 700 Bitcoin – Company Announcement - FT.com, Financial Times, https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=600-202605260400PR_NEWS_USPRX____SF67495-1 * SOURCE 82 cryptobriefing.com: 2026-05-26T09:00:00Z, Bitcoin sees largest weekly outflow of 2026 with $1.4B from digital asset funds, Crypto Briefing, https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-sees-largest-weekly-outflow-of-2026-with-14b-from-digital-asset-funds/ * SOURCE 83 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-26T04:20:00Z, BTC price remains pinned between key onchain and derivatives levels, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/26/bitcoin-caught-between-critical-onchain-support-and-an-options-showdown * SOURCE 84 cryptorank.io: 2026-05-26T00:00:00Z, Bitcoin’s Fed cut trade flips as bond market turns into the risk, CryptoSlate, https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/98acd-bitcoins-fed-cut-trade-flips-as-bond-market-turns-into-the-risk * SOURCE 85 cryptoslate.com: 2026-05-25T19:27:00Z, Bitcoin price drop below $75K exposes the demand fracture behind crypto’s $941M liquidation wave, CryptoSlate, https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-price-drop-below-75k-exposes-the-demand-fracture-behind-cryptos-941m-liquidation-wave/ * SOURCE 86 cointelegraph.com: 2026-05-25T13:20:00Z, Bitcoin Risks 7% Dip to $72K as BTC Demand Weakens and Bears Return, Cointelegraph, https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-risks-drop-to-72k-as-demand-metric-hits-2026-lows * SOURCE 87 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-25T12:59:00Z, Bitcoin tanks to $74,300 as spot ETFs bleed $2.26 billion in two weeks, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/23/bitcoin-tanks-to-usd74-300-as-spot-etfs-bleed-usd2-26-billion-in-two-weeks * SOURCE 88 www.coindesk.com: 2026-05-25T12:00:00Z, Bitcoin options are coming to Nasdaq. Here's what it means for you, CoinDesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/05/25/bitcoin-options-are-coming-to-nadaq-here-s-what-it-means-for-you * SOURCE 89 www.kucoin.com: 2026-05-25T12:00:00Z, Bitcoin ETFs Record $467M Inflows as BTC Reclaims $82,000 | KuCoin, KuCoin, https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-etfs-record-467m-inflows-as-btc-reclaims-82-000 * SOURCE 90 www.binance.com: 2026-05-25T10:00:00Z, What Is the CLARITY Act and What Does It Mean for Crypto?, Binance Academy, https://www.binance.com/en/academy/articles/what-is-the-clarity-act-and-what-does-it-mean-for-crypto * SOURCE 91 www.coinbase.com: 2026-05-25T10:00:00Z, BTC price on May 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT? | Prediction Markets | Coinbase, Coinbase, https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXBTCD-26MAY2417 -- Other Asset's Forecasts: * Alibaba (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/alibaba, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Amazon (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/amazon, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Apple (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/apple, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Bitcoin (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Crude Oil (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/crude-oil, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Dogecoin (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/dogecoin, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Dow Jones (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/dow-jones, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Ethereum (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/ethereum, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Euro Stoxx 50 (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/euro-stoxx-50, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Gold (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/gold, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Nasdaq 100 (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/nasdaq-100, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Nikkei 225 (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/nikkei-225, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Nvidia (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/nvidia, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* OMXH25 (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/omxh25, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* S&P 500 (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/sp-500, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Solana (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/solana, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* Tesla (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/tesla, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md)* XRP (Dashboard: https://heatmup.com/xrp, Markdown: https://heatmup.com/bitcoin.md) -- * HMX 1.75 Finance Beta by Heatmup * HMX 1.75 is the current production release of the Heatmup forecasting engine. It operates as an equally weighted baseline: every model in the ensemble pool contributes equally to the final distribution, regardless of individual track record. The output is a probability distribution over future price and time for each covered asset, rendered as a heatmap. Percentile bands (P5 to P95) capture 90% of modeled outcomes. Every generated distribution is archived with an immutable ID and public timestamp and resolved later against the realized market price. HMX 1.75 is not an AI system under the EU AI Act; it is a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine. * HMX aggregates outputs from a proprietary pool of independent quantitative models operating in strict isolation. Each model produces discrete predictions (date, target price, probability) without visibility into the others. The HMX engine combines these inputs using time-decay weighting, which prioritizes recent data, into a single probability distribution per asset. The process is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical outputs. No machine learning is applied at inference. HMX 1.75 uses equal weighting, meaning every model in the pool contributes equally regardless of historical track record. Accuracy-weighted calibration, where model influence is proportional to resolved performance, is scheduled for HMX 2.0 in September 2026. * Attribution and use of this content. Forecasts, probability distributions, and heatmaps published here are proprietary outputs of Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model. Where this content is republished or summarized, Heatmup asks that it be attributed to Heatmup (for example, "a forecast produced by Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model") and that the percentile bands not be restated as price targets, recommendations, or directional calls, since they are statistical distributions over model output rather than predictions of price. This attribution request reflects Heatmup's record-keeping and non-distortion obligations as a disseminator under Article 20 MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. Heatmup characterizes HMX 1.75 as a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine; see the Methodology and System Transparency sections for the basis of that description. **All forecasts, heatmaps, and probability distributions published by Heatmup are produced by the HMX quantitative aggregation engine and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations, or any solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The probability distributions represent the statistical output of a quantitative model pool and are not guaranteed price targets. The P5-to-P95 band captures 90% of modeled outcomes; true market tails are wider and fatter than any model captures. Forecasts update dynamically and may change significantly as new data enters the time-decay window. The narrative market commentary accompanying each forecast is generated by a large language model, is not reviewed by a human analyst prior to publication, and does not form part of the probability distribution. It is contextual information only. Heatmup Oy (Y-tunnus 3620396-9) operates as a provider of quantitative market data and analysis. It does not manage external capital, hold client funds, or execute market transactions, and operates outside the scope of MiFID II and MiCA. Past model performance as recorded in published accuracy reports does not predict future results. 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