Terms of Service

Updated 10/06/26, 16:26

1. Definitions and Interpretation

In these Terms of Service (the "Terms") the following expressions bear the meanings set out below. "Heatmup", "we", "us", or "our" means Heatmup Oy, a limited liability company incorporated under the laws of Finland under business identity code (Y-tunnus) 3620396-9, having its registered office in Vantaa, Finland. "User", "you", or "your" means any natural or legal person who accesses or uses the Service. "Consumer" means a User who is a natural person acting for purposes outside that person's trade, business, craft, or profession within the meaning of the Finnish Consumer Protection Act (Kuluttajansuojalaki 38/1978) and, where applicable, equivalent consumer protection law in the User's jurisdiction. "Professional User" means any User who is not a Consumer. "US User" means a User who is a resident of, citizen of, or accessing the Service from within the United States of America.

"Service" means the website at heatmup.com, the HMX forecasting engine, the heatmap visualisations, the public calibration ledger, all forecasts and output, and all related content, data, and infrastructure made available by Heatmup. "Output" means any forecast, probability distribution, heatmap, data point, market intelligence report, or other result generated or displayed by the Service. "HMX" means the proprietary quantitative aggregation engine that produces the Output. Headings are for convenience only and do not affect interpretation. References to legislation include that legislation as amended, replaced, or re-enacted from time to time. Words importing the singular include the plural and vice versa.

2. Acceptance and Scope of these Terms

These Terms constitute a binding legal agreement between you and Heatmup. By accessing, browsing, or using the Service in any manner, you confirm that you have read, understood, and agree to be bound by these Terms in their entirety, together with any document expressly incorporated by reference, including the Privacy Policy at heatmup.com/legal/privacy, the Compliance statement at heatmup.com/compliance, and the Cookie Policy at heatmup.com/legal/cookies. If you do not accept these Terms, you must not access or use the Service.

These Terms apply to all Users in every jurisdiction from which the Service is accessed. Where a provision is expressed to apply only to Consumers, only to Professional Users, or only to US Users, it applies solely to that category. Nothing in these Terms limits or excludes any right that a Consumer holds under mandatory provisions of applicable law, and in the event of conflict between these Terms and such mandatory rights, those rights prevail to the extent of the conflict.

3. Eligibility and Geographic Restrictions

You may use the Service only if you have reached the age of legal majority and full legal capacity to enter into binding contracts in your jurisdiction of residence. By using the Service you represent and warrant that you meet this requirement and that your use of the Service does not violate any law applicable to you. The Service is operated from Finland and made available internationally; Heatmup makes no representation that the Output or the Service is appropriate or available for use in any particular location. Where you access the Service from outside Finland, including from the United States, you do so on your own initiative and are responsible for compliance with the laws of your jurisdiction. Heatmup may, at its sole discretion, restrict or refuse access to the Service in any jurisdiction where its provision would be unlawful or would subject Heatmup to any registration, licensing, or authorisation requirement to which it is not subject.

4. Sanctions and Restricted Persons

You represent and warrant that you are not, and are not acting on behalf of, a person with whom dealings are restricted or prohibited under the economic or trade sanctions laws administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Department of the Treasury, the United Nations, the European Union, or any other applicable authority. You may not access or use the Service if you are located in, ordinarily resident in, or organised under the laws of any country or territory that is the subject of comprehensive sanctions, which currently include Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, and the Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, or if you are listed on, or owned or controlled by a person listed on, OFAC's Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List or any equivalent restricted-party list.

The set of sanctioned jurisdictions and persons changes over time; the current OFAC programs are published at ofac.treasury.gov, and you are responsible for ensuring your use is lawful. Heatmup may block, suspend, or terminate access where it reasonably believes a User is a restricted person or is located in a restricted territory.

5. Nature of the Service and Output

The Service produces probabilistic forecasts presented as visual probability distributions generated by an automated quantitative aggregation engine. All Output is provided strictly for general informational purposes. The Output does not constitute, and shall under no circumstances be construed as, financial advice, investment advice, a personal recommendation, investment research, a research report, a solicitation, an offer, an inducement, or any encouragement to buy, sell, hold, subscribe for, underwrite, or otherwise transact in any financial instrument, security, cryptoasset, commodity, future, swap, index, derivative, or other asset.

The Output expresses estimated statistical likelihoods only. It does not represent a prediction of certain or probable future performance for any individual User and is not tailored to the financial situation, objectives, knowledge, experience, or risk tolerance of any recipient. You acknowledge that any decision you make is made solely on the basis of your own independent judgement and at your own risk.

6. Forecasts Express Probability, Not Certainty

You expressly acknowledge and agree to the following. No Output predicts the future. A probability distribution describes a range of possible outcomes and the estimated likelihood attaching to each; it is not a statement that any outcome will occur. Past calibration, past accuracy, past performance of the HMX engine, the public calibration ledger, and any market intelligence report do not indicate, guarantee, or predict future calibration, future accuracy, or any future result. A forecast that resolved correctly in the past confers no assurance that any future forecast will resolve correctly.

Markets are subject to sudden, severe, and unforeseeable movement, and any forecast may be rendered inaccurate by events occurring after it was generated. You must not treat any Output, however precise or authoritative it may appear, as a representation of what will happen. The visual polish, granularity, or apparent confidence of any heatmap does not increase the reliability of the underlying forecast.

7. No Advisory or Fiduciary Relationship

Heatmup is not authorised, registered, or regulated as an investment firm, investment adviser, portfolio manager, broker, dealer, or provider of any investment service in Finland, the United States, or any other jurisdiction. Nothing in the Service or these Terms creates an advisory, fiduciary, agency, client, or similar relationship between Heatmup and any User. Heatmup does not assess and is under no duty to assess the suitability or appropriateness of any transaction or strategy for any User, holds no information regarding any User's financial circumstances or objectives, and undertakes no such assessment. Heatmup does not manage any assets, hold any client funds, or execute any transaction on behalf of any person. You are solely responsible for obtaining independent professional advice appropriate to your circumstances before making any financial decision.

8. Regulatory Status under MiFID II

Heatmup does not provide any investment service or activity within the meaning of Directive 2014/65/EU on markets in financial instruments ("MiFID II") or the Finnish Act on Investment Services (Sijoituspalvelulaki 747/2012). The Output does not constitute investment research or a marketing communication within the meaning of those provisions, nor a personal recommendation as defined therein. The Output is generic information disseminated to the public at large and is not directed at, or tailored to, the circumstances of any particular recipient. Heatmup is not a member of and does not operate any regulated market, multilateral trading facility, or organised trading facility, and executes no transactions on behalf of any person. Heatmup is not supervised by the Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finanssivalvonta) in respect of the Service. The separate and broader definition of "investment recommendation" under MAR, within which the Output may fall and which is addressed in clause 13, operates under a different regime and does not alter the position that the Output is neither investment advice nor investment research under MiFID II.

9. Regulatory Status under MiCA

Heatmup does not provide any cryptoasset service within the meaning of Regulation (EU) 2023/1114 on markets in cryptoassets ("MiCA"). The Service does not constitute the provision of advice on cryptoassets, the reception or transmission of orders, the operation of a trading platform, the exchange of cryptoassets, the custody or administration of cryptoassets, or any other service requiring authorisation under MiCA. Output relating to cryptoassets is generic statistical information only and is not a recommendation or inducement to acquire, dispose of, or hold any cryptoasset. Heatmup is not authorised as a cryptoasset service provider and is not supervised under MiCA. Cryptoassets are high-risk instruments that may lose all of their value; you bear full responsibility for any dealing in them.

10. United States Regulatory Status

This clause applies to US Users and to any reliance on the Output within the United States. Heatmup is not registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), or any state securities regulator, and is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor, commodity pool operator, or futures commission merchant.

The Output is not investment advice within the meaning of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and is not a "research report" within the meaning of Regulation AC or FINRA rules. No content on the Service is personalised investment advice, and no fiduciary duty under the Advisers Act, ERISA, or any other US law arises from your use of the Service. The Output is bona fide, impersonal information of general and regular circulation, made available uniformly to the public, and is not directed to or tailored to the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person or subscriber. US Users should consult a registered investment professional before acting.

11. No Tax Advice

The Output does not constitute, and must not be relied upon as, tax advice. Heatmup is not a tax adviser, accountant, or preparer, and provides no guidance on the tax treatment of any security, cryptoasset, commodity, transaction, gain, or loss in any jurisdiction. The trading and disposal of securities and cryptoassets can give rise to significant tax obligations, including obligations to report and pay tax to the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS), to the Finnish Tax Administration (Verohallinto), and to other authorities. You are solely responsible for determining and discharging any tax liability arising from your activities, for maintaining adequate records, and for filing all required returns. Heatmup accepts no liability for any tax, penalty, interest, or charge incurred by any User. You should consult a qualified tax professional regarding your circumstances.

12. Market Abuse: European Union (MAR)

You are solely responsible for ensuring that your own conduct complies with Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 on market abuse ("MAR") and all other applicable laws prohibiting insider dealing, the unlawful disclosure of inside information, and market manipulation. You must not use the Service as a means of, or in connection with, any conduct prohibited under MAR. The Output is derived from publicly available and lawfully obtained information, is generated and published without any intention to influence the price of any financial instrument, and must not be relied upon as confirmation of, justification for, or a defence to, any obligation or prohibition arising under MAR. You must not represent to any third party that any Output constitutes inside information or a signal generated from inside information. Heatmup accepts no liability whatsoever for any User's breach of MAR, and any such breach is committed by the User alone.

13. Conflicts of Interest and MAR Disclosure

"Investment recommendation" is a defined term under Article 3(1)(35) of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 ("MAR") and is materially broader than the ordinary meaning of a recommendation: it captures information that recommends or suggests an investment strategy concerning one or more financial instruments and that is intended for distribution channels or the public. To the extent that the Output falls within that broad statutory definition, Heatmup treats itself as a producer and disseminator of non-personalised investment recommendations for the purposes of MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958, and complies with the obligations applicable to such persons. This statutory characterisation is specific to MAR and does not mean that the Output is a personal recommendation, investment advice, or investment research within the meaning of MiFID II, none of which it is, as set out in clause 8. On that basis, Heatmup maintains the following arrangements. Each forecast is recorded with an immutable identifier and a public timestamp and is retained in a permanent archive. Heatmup does not hold or trade positions in the assets it forecasts and does not act on the basis of inside information. Where any person connected with the production of the Output holds a position in a covered asset, that interest is disclosed. The basis and methodology of the Output, together with Heatmup's conflicts-of-interest disclosures, are published openly at heatmup.com/compliance and are linked from the forecasts to which they relate. Heatmup produces the Output objectively and without any intention to influence the price of any financial instrument.

14. Market Abuse: United States

If you are a US User or transact in US markets, you are solely responsible for compliance with the US federal securities and commodities laws prohibiting market abuse, including Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and SEC Rule 10b-5, Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, the prohibitions on insider trading and tipping, and the anti-manipulation and anti-fraud provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act and the rules of the CFTC, including those addressing fraud-based manipulation and spoofing. You must not use the Service in connection with any conduct that constitutes manipulation, fraud, insider trading, or deception under these laws. The Output is generic information published without intent to manipulate or influence the price of any security or commodity, and must not be relied upon as confirmation of, or a defence to, any obligation under these laws. Heatmup accepts no liability for any User's breach of any US market-abuse, securities, or commodities law, and any such breach is committed by the User alone.

15. Acceptable Use and Prohibited Conduct

You agree that you will not, and will not permit any third party or automated agent to: (a) access, scrape, harvest, crawl, index, or extract Output or any part of the Service by automated means, except where expressly permitted in writing by Heatmup; (b) reverse engineer, decompile, disassemble, probe, or otherwise attempt to derive, reconstruct, or discover the HMX engine, its models, its weighting, its methodology, its source code, or any underlying algorithm or trade secret; (c) copy, reproduce, redistribute, republish, sublicense, sell, rent, or commercially exploit the Output or the Service, in whole or in part; (d) use the Service in connection with any conduct that constitutes or facilitates market manipulation, insider dealing, fraud, or any other unlawful act under MAR, US securities or commodities law, or any other law.

You further agree that you will not: (e) circumvent, disable, or interfere with any security, access-control, or rate-limiting measure, or impose an unreasonable or disproportionate load on the infrastructure; (f) introduce any malware, code, or device intended to disrupt, damage, or gain unauthorised access to the Service or any system or data; (g) misrepresent the nature of the Output to any third party, including by presenting it as financial advice or as a guarantee of outcome; or (h) use the Service in breach of any applicable law or these Terms. Heatmup may suspend or terminate access immediately and without notice for any actual or suspected breach of this clause, and reserves all rights and remedies available at law.

16. Intellectual Property

All rights, title, and interest in and to the Service, including the HMX engine, the forecasting methodology, the heatmap presentation, the calibration ledger, the database rights in the Output, the source code, the design, the trademarks, and all other content, are and shall remain the exclusive property of Heatmup Oy or its licensors. These Terms grant you no rights other than a limited, revocable, non-exclusive, non-transferable, non-sublicensable licence to access and view the Service for your own personal, non-commercial, informational use, subject to these Terms. All rights not expressly granted are reserved. Nothing in the Service transfers any ownership of intellectual property to any User. You may not remove, obscure, or alter any proprietary notice displayed on the Service.

17. Third-Party Data and Sources

The Output is generated using data, signals, and information obtained from third-party sources, including market data feeds, news sources, options data, and prediction-market pricing. Heatmup does not control these sources and does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, continuity, or availability of any third-party data. Any interruption, error, delay, or inaccuracy in a third-party source may affect the Output, and Heatmup accepts no responsibility or liability for any such effect. The Service may contain links to third-party websites or resources provided for convenience only; Heatmup does not endorse and is not responsible for the content, products, or services of any third party, and your use of any third-party resource is at your own risk and subject to that third party's terms.

18. Availability, Changes, and Discontinuation

Heatmup aims to keep the Service available and current, but does not guarantee continuous availability, uptime, accuracy, refresh frequency, or uninterrupted operation of the Service, and the Service may be unavailable from time to time for maintenance, technical reasons, or causes beyond Heatmup's control. Heatmup may, at its sole discretion and without liability, modify, suspend, withdraw, restrict, or discontinue all or any part of the Service, any Output, or any feature, at any time and with or without notice. Heatmup may amend these Terms at any time. Amendments take effect upon publication of the revised Terms on the Service, and your continued use after publication constitutes acceptance of the amended Terms. Where an amendment materially affects the rights of a Consumer, Heatmup will take reasonable steps to bring the change to the Consumer's attention where required by applicable law.

19. Disclaimer of Warranties

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, the Service and all Output are provided on an "as is" and "as available" basis, without warranty, representation, or condition of any kind, whether express, implied, statutory, or otherwise. Heatmup expressly disclaims all such warranties, including without limitation any implied warranty or condition of accuracy, calibration, reliability, completeness, satisfactory quality, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, and non-infringement.

Heatmup does not warrant that the Service will be uninterrupted, secure, timely, or error-free, that any Output is or will be accurate or calibrated, or that any defect will be corrected. No advice or information, whether oral or written, obtained from Heatmup or through the Service creates any warranty not expressly stated in these Terms. Nothing in this clause excludes any warranty or right that cannot be excluded under mandatory law applicable to a Consumer.

20. Limitation and Exclusion of Liability

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, and subject always to the paragraphs below addressing Consumers and certain US Users, the aggregate liability of Heatmup Oy, its operator, officers, and affiliates to any User arising out of or in connection with the Service, the Output, or these Terms, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty, or otherwise, shall be zero. Without limitation, Heatmup shall not be liable for any loss of profit, trading loss, investment loss, loss of capital, loss of anticipated savings, loss of opportunity, loss of goodwill, loss of data, or any indirect, incidental, consequential, special, punitive, or exemplary loss or damage, in each case howsoever arising and even if Heatmup has been advised of the possibility of such loss. You acknowledge that the Service is provided free of charge and that this allocation of risk is reasonable.

Nothing in these Terms excludes or limits liability for death or personal injury caused by negligence, for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation, or for any liability that cannot be excluded or limited under applicable mandatory law. For a Consumer, Heatmup's liability is limited only to the extent permitted by the Finnish Consumer Protection Act, equivalent consumer law in the Consumer's jurisdiction, and other mandatory law, and the exclusions above apply only so far as that law allows; the statutory rights of a Consumer are not affected. Some US states do not allow the exclusion of certain implied warranties or the limitation of incidental or consequential damages. Where the law of a US state prohibits the total exclusion of liability or of implied warranties, Heatmup's aggregate liability to that User shall be capped at fifty US dollars (USD 50), and the warranty exclusions above shall apply only to the extent permitted by that state's law.

21. Indemnification

To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, you agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless Heatmup Oy, its operator, officers, and affiliates from and against any and all claims, demands, proceedings, liabilities, damages, losses, costs, and expenses, including reasonable legal fees, arising out of or in connection with your use or misuse of the Service, your breach of these Terms, your infringement of any intellectual property or other right of any person, or your violation of any applicable law or regulation, including MiFID II, MiCA, MAR, US securities or commodities law, tax law, and sanctions law. This clause does not apply to a Consumer except to the extent that the relevant loss results from the Consumer's intentional or grossly negligent conduct, and nothing in this clause limits any mandatory right of a Consumer.

22. Privacy and Cookies

Heatmup processes personal data in accordance with Regulation (EU) 2016/679 (the General Data Protection Regulation) and applicable Finnish data protection law, and, where applicable to US Users, in accordance with applicable US state privacy laws. Details of the personal data we process, the purposes and legal bases for processing, and your rights as a data subject are set out in the Privacy Policy at heatmup.com/legal/privacy. Information about the cookies and similar technologies used by the Service is set out in the Cookie Policy at heatmup.com/legal/cookies. By using the Service you acknowledge that you have read these documents. Further information about Heatmup's regulatory positioning is available at heatmup.com/compliance.

23. Suspension and Termination

Heatmup may suspend, restrict, or terminate your access to the Service at any time, with or without cause and with or without notice, including where Heatmup reasonably believes that you have breached these Terms, that your use poses a risk to the Service, to Heatmup, or to any third party, or that you are a restricted person under clause 4. You may cease using the Service at any time. Termination does not affect any right or liability that accrued before termination. The provisions of these Terms that by their nature should survive termination, including those concerning intellectual property, disclaimer of warranties, limitation of liability, indemnification, governing law, jurisdiction, and dispute resolution, survive termination.

24. Force Majeure

Heatmup shall not be liable for any failure or delay in performance arising from any cause beyond its reasonable control, including act of God, natural disaster, epidemic or pandemic, war, terrorism, civil disturbance, governmental, regulatory, or sanctions action, failure of telecommunications or internet infrastructure, failure or interruption of any third-party data source, power failure, or cyberattack.

25. Assignment and Waiver

Heatmup may assign, transfer, or subcontract any of its rights or obligations under these Terms to any third party, including in connection with a merger, acquisition, or sale of assets, provided that such assignment does not diminish the rights of a Consumer. You may not assign or transfer any of your rights or obligations under these Terms without Heatmup's prior written consent. No failure or delay by Heatmup in exercising any right or remedy under these Terms operates as a waiver of that right or remedy, and no single or partial exercise of any right or remedy precludes any further exercise of it.

26. Severability and Entire Agreement

If any provision of these Terms is held by a court or competent authority to be invalid, unlawful, or unenforceable, that provision shall be severed to the minimum extent necessary and the remaining provisions shall continue in full force and effect. Where possible, an invalid provision shall be replaced by a valid provision that most closely reflects the original intent. These Terms, together with the documents incorporated by reference, constitute the entire agreement between you and Heatmup with respect to the Service and supersede all prior or contemporaneous understandings, communications, and agreements, whether oral or written, relating to its subject matter.

27. Governing Law and Jurisdiction

These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising out of or in connection with them are governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of Finland, without regard to any conflict-of-laws principle. The courts of Finland, with the District Court of Helsinki (Helsingin käräjäoikeus) as the court of first instance, shall have exclusive jurisdiction to settle any dispute arising out of or in connection with these Terms or the Service.

A Consumer may bring proceedings in, and is entitled to the protection of the mandatory law of, the Consumer's country of residence, and nothing in this clause deprives a Consumer of that protection or of access to the courts of the Consumer's place of residence where mandatory law so provides. This choice of Finnish law and forum applies to US Users to the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, subject to the dispute resolution provisions for US Users in clause 28.

28. Dispute Resolution and Arbitration for US Users

This clause applies only to US Users and only if and to the extent that a court of competent jurisdiction in the United States declines to enforce the Finnish governing law and exclusive jurisdiction set out in clause 27. In that event, any dispute, claim, or controversy arising out of or relating to the Service or these Terms shall be resolved exclusively by final and binding individual arbitration administered by the American Arbitration Association under its Consumer Arbitration Rules then in effect, seated in the State of Delaware, conducted in English, before a single arbitrator. Judgment on the award may be entered in any court of competent jurisdiction. Either party may seek injunctive or equitable relief in a court of competent jurisdiction for actual or threatened infringement of intellectual property or misuse of the Service.

Class-Action Waiver. To the maximum extent permitted by law, you and Heatmup agree that each may bring claims against the other only in an individual capacity, and not as a plaintiff or class member in any purported class, collective, consolidated, or representative proceeding. The arbitrator may not consolidate the claims of more than one person and may not preside over any form of class or representative proceeding. You waive any right to participate in a class action against Heatmup. If this Class-Action Waiver is held unenforceable as to any claim, that claim shall be severed and heard in court, while all other claims proceed in arbitration. Where applicable law does not permit mandatory arbitration or a class-action waiver in respect of a particular User or claim, this clause applies only to the extent permitted, and the remainder of these Terms continues in effect.

29. Dispute Resolution for Consumers

Where you are a Consumer resident in Finland, you may refer a dispute to the Finnish Consumer Disputes Board (Kuluttajariitalautakunta) after first contacting the Consumer Advisory Services (Kuluttajaneuvonta). Before referring a matter to the Board, you should contact Heatmup at [email protected] to seek a resolution. Where you are a Consumer resident in the European Union, you may also have access to the European Commission's Online Dispute Resolution platform. This clause applies only to Consumers and does not affect any other right of recourse available under mandatory law.

30. Contact

Heatmup Oy, business identity code (Y-tunnus) 3620396-9, Helsinki, Finland. Legal inquiries: [email protected]. General contact: [email protected]. Investor inquiries: [email protected]. These Terms were last updated on 9 June 2026.