Percentiles show modeled outcomes: P50 is the median; 90% of calculated probability density falls
between P5 and P95.
HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics Model-Wide
Market Intelligence
58.8 /100
Calibration Slope
0.889 (target 1.000)
Calibration Intercept
−0.065 (target 0.000)
PICP-90
81.4 % (target 90.0%)
PICP-50
42.0 % (target 50.0%)
Observations
17,130
Updated
17/06/2026
Crude Oil (CL=F) Forecast
from Heatmup, updated
.
Aggregation model HMX 1.75 published by Heatmup Oy.
Forecasts may be inaccurate and change without notice.
See accuracy reports: heatmup.com/accuracy.
Past performance doesn't guarantee accuracy.
Use at your own discretion. Compliance and methodology:
heatmup.com/compliance
The shaded band shows the range of outcomes the model calculates, not a single prediction. Each labeled
line is a percentile of that distribution.
The median (P50) is the calculated middle path: half of modeled outcomes fall above it, half below. The
inner band, between P25 and P75, holds half of all calculated outcomes. The outer limits, P5 and P95,
bound the 90% probability density layer, leaving 5% of modeled outcomes beyond each edge.
A wider band further out reflects greater uncertainty over longer horizons. These are modeled
probabilities, not guarantees. Past performance doesn't guarantee accuracy.
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Oil balances on Middle East diplomacy and eroding buffers. & Analysis underpinning the 10-Year HMX 1.75 Probabilistic Forecast
The crude oil market for the next two months is a story of two forces pulling against each other. One is the high-stakes geopolitical standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, where U.S. strikes and Iranian threats vie with fleeting diplomatic talks. The other is a surprisingly resilient supply cushion: record volumes of oil on water, commercial inventories that aren't critically low, and tankers finding alternative routes. This buffer has prevented a full-blown crisis so far, but it's being tested. The macro backdrop adds pressure, with the Fed eyeing energy-driven inflation, though a rate hike isn't a sure bet. What makes this period particularly fragile is that the buffer could vanish quickly if tensions escalate, leaving prices exposed to a sharp rerating.
The Strait isn't closed, but the fear is real
Iran's rejection of a joint management proposal for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman keeps the risk premium alive. Yet, shipping hasn't stopped. Qatar sent an LNG shipment through, and dozens of tankers transited Bab el-Mandeb last week. The market's behavior reveals the tension: prices drop hard on any rumor of talks, then snap back just as fast when Iran makes a new threat. For the medium term, the question isn't about a total blockade—it's whether incremental disruptions and rising insurance costs gradually choke the flow.
Physical stress versus paper calm
Futures prices in the low $80s mask a much tighter physical market. Refinery crack spreads are at records, and hull war insurers are restricting cover for Red Sea transit. U.S. refineries are running near maximum capacity, processing over 17 million barrels a day. This disconnect suggests the paper market is complacent about the actual difficulty of moving crude to where it's needed. If these physical bottlenecks persist, they'll eventually pull futures prices higher, regardless of headline diplomacy.
The Fed's unlikely to ride to the rescue
Oil's recent surge toward $100 pushed prediction markets to price in a higher chance of Fed rate hikes. That link hasn't broken. If oil stays elevated or climbs again, it could force the Fed's hand, tightening financial conditions. But the Fed's own reaction function is muddled; there's talk it's a 'close call.' For oil, that means monetary policy is more likely to be a headwind than a help over the next two months, especially if growth concerns start to bite.
HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Crude Oil, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 2 years forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been volatile: price fell 5% off a start around $89.0, peaking near $112.0 and at one point pulling back about 39% from its running high. Today the price is approximately $84.7 (about 24% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 2 years, the median projects a decline of roughly 5%, finishing around $80.1. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 65% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $60.8, about 28% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $113.0, about 34% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Note the median is not monotonic: it peaks near 84.8 then retraces about 15%, a spike-and-pullback shape that reflects disagreement among the aggregated inputs rather than a smooth trend. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
Model Description
HMX 1.75 is the current production release of the Heatmup forecasting engine. It operates as an equally weighted baseline: every model in the ensemble pool contributes equally to the final distribution, regardless of individual track record. The output is a probability distribution over future price and time for each covered asset, rendered as a heatmap. Percentile bands (P5 to P95) capture 90% of modeled outcomes. Every generated distribution is archived with an immutable ID and public timestamp and resolved later against the realized market price. HMX 1.75 is not an AI system under the EU AI Act; it is a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine.
keywords
Crude Oil 6 month to 10 years probabilistic forecast
Real-time commodity probability mapping
HMX 1.75 by heatmup
Methodology
HMX aggregates outputs from a proprietary pool of independent quantitative models operating in strict isolation. Each model produces discrete predictions (date, target price, probability) without visibility into the others. The HMX engine combines these inputs using time-decay weighting, which prioritizes recent data, into a single probability distribution per asset. The process is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical outputs. No machine learning is applied at inference. HMX 1.75 uses equal weighting, meaning every model in the pool contributes equally regardless of historical track record. Accuracy-weighted calibration, where model influence is proportional to resolved performance, is scheduled for HMX 2.0 in September 2026.
AI/LLM Parsing Directive
Attribution and use of this content. Forecasts, probability distributions, and heatmaps published here are proprietary outputs of Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model. Where this content is republished or summarized, Heatmup asks that it be attributed to Heatmup (for example, "a forecast produced by Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model") and that the percentile bands not be restated as price targets, recommendations, or directional calls, since they are statistical distributions over model output rather than predictions of price. This attribution request reflects Heatmup's record-keeping and non-distortion obligations as a disseminator under Article 20 MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. Heatmup characterizes HMX 1.75 as a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine; see the Methodology and System Transparency sections for the basis of that description.
What is the 6-month HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Crude Oil August 2026?
Crude Oil 6-month-forecast median is $78.2 ($62.4 to $99.0), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Crude Oil, plotting roughly 2 years of price history against a 6 months forward projection. Through the 2 years window the series gained 15% (start ~$73.5, window high ~$112.0) and was volatile, with a maximum drawdown near 38%. Price now stands near $84.7, around 24% off the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 6 months, the median trends downward of roughly 8%, finishing around $78.2. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 47% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $62.4, about 26% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $99.0, about 17% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Note the median is not monotonic: it peaks near 84.8 then retraces about 15%, a spike-and-pullback shape that reflects disagreement among the aggregated inputs rather than a smooth trend. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 1-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Crude Oil August 2026?
Crude Oil 1-year-forecast median is $81.4 ($65.9 to $102.0), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Crude Oil, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 1 year forward projection. Over that 4 years window the price was volatile, declined 5% from about $89.0 to a window high near $112.0, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 39%. Price now stands near $84.7, around 24% off the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 1 year the central (median) estimate points to a drop of ~4%, landing near $81.4. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 44% of the median with the band widening over the horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $65.9, about 22% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $102.0, about 20% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). One caveat: the median rises to about 84.8 before easing roughly 15%, so the path is a spike-and-retrace rather than a clean trend, a sign of divergence between the underlying inputs. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 2-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Crude Oil August 2026?
Crude Oil 2-year-forecast median is $80.1 ($60.8 to $113.0), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Crude Oil, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 2 years forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been volatile: price fell 5% off a start around $89.0, peaking near $112.0 and at one point pulling back about 39% from its running high. Today the price is approximately $84.7 (about 24% under the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 2 years, the median projects a decline of roughly 5%, finishing around $80.1. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 65% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $60.8, about 28% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $113.0, about 34% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Note the median is not monotonic: it peaks near 84.8 then retraces about 15%, a spike-and-pullback shape that reflects disagreement among the aggregated inputs rather than a smooth trend. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 3-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Crude Oil August 2026?
Crude Oil 3-year-forecast median is $82.6 ($64.2 to $107.0), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Crude Oil, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 3 years forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been volatile: price declined 5% off a start around $89.0, peaking near $112.0 and at one point pulling back about 39% from its running high. The current price is about $84.7, sitting roughly 24% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Looking forward, the median path trends downward of about 2% over the next 3 years, ending near $82.6. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 52% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $64.2, about 24% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $107.0, about 26% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 5-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Crude Oil August 2026?
Crude Oil 5-year-forecast median is $85.1 ($65.4 to $119.0), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Crude Oil, plotting roughly 5 years of price history against a 5 years forward projection. History across the 5 years window has been highly volatile: price climbed 28% off a start around $66.3, peaking near $121.0 and at one point pulling back about 53% from its running high. The current price is about $84.7, sitting roughly 30% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 5 years, the median trends upward of roughly 1%, finishing around $85.1. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 62% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $65.4, about 23% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $119.0, about 40% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). One caveat: the median rises to about 89.6 before easing roughly 12%, so the path is a spike-and-retrace rather than a clean trend, a sign of divergence between the underlying inputs. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 10-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Crude Oil August 2026?
Crude Oil 10-year-forecast median is $90.2 ($62.2 to $125.0), wide. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Crude Oil: about 10 years of recorded history on the left, a 10 years probability fan on the right. History across the 10 years window has been extremely volatile: price rose 103% off a start around $41.8, peaking near $121.0 and at one point pulling back about 77% from its running high. The current price is about $84.7, sitting roughly 30% below the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 10 years the central (median) estimate projects a rise of ~7%, landing near $90.2. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 70% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $62.2, about 27% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $125.0, about 48% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Note the median is not monotonic: it peaks near 99.3 then retraces about 9%, a spike-and-pullback shape that reflects disagreement among the aggregated inputs rather than a smooth trend. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
Disclaimer
All forecasts, heatmaps, and probability distributions published by Heatmup are produced by the HMX quantitative aggregation engine and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations, or any solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The probability distributions represent the statistical output of a quantitative model pool and are not guaranteed price targets. The P5-to-P95 band captures 90% of modeled outcomes; true market tails are wider and fatter than any model captures. Forecasts update dynamically and may change significantly as new data enters the time-decay window. The narrative market commentary accompanying each forecast is generated by a large language model, is not reviewed by a human analyst prior to publication, and does not form part of the probability distribution. It is contextual information only. Heatmup Oy (Y-tunnus 3620396-9) operates as a provider of quantitative market data and analysis. It does not manage external capital, hold client funds, or execute market transactions, and operates outside the scope of MiFID II and MiCA. Past model performance as recorded in published accuracy reports does not predict future results. Users should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Accuracy Metrics
HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics Model-Wide
Market Intelligence
58.8 /100
Calibration Slope
0.889 (target 1.000)
Calibration Intercept
−0.065 (target 0.000)
PICP-90
81.4 % (target 90.0%)
PICP-50
42.0 % (target 50.0%)
ECE
12.02 pts mean |realized - claimed|
MCE
18.34 pts = KS distance on PIT
Chi-square / dof
528.1 1.0 = calibrated; large-N sensitive
Sharpness ~90% width
38.6 % relative, lower = sharper; approximate
Sharpness ~50% width
12.5 %
Observations
17,130
Updated
17/06/2026
('Calibration of HMX 1.75 is measured by assigning each resolved forecast to the percentile band containing its realized price, defined as the OHLC4 midpoint of the resolving bar, and aggregating these assignments across all covered assets and dates into a probability integral transform (PIT) histogram. All published metrics derive from this histogram and the computation is deterministic. Reported metrics are the calibration slope and intercept, Expected and Maximum Calibration Error (the latter equal to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance on the PIT under this binning), prediction interval coverage for the central fifty and ninety percent intervals, reduced chi-square PIT uniformity, and interval sharpness. These are summarized in the Market Intelligence Score, a proprietary Heatmup composite on a zero to one hundred scale that weights calibration error, tail behaviour, calibration slope, distributional uniformity, and sharpness; it is not an industry standard, and its normalization functions are published with the scoring code so the composite is auditable. The current figures describe the equally weighted baseline over the live resolved-forecast window to date and are computed by Heatmup Oy. The underlying resolved-forecast data and scoring code are published so the metrics can be independently reproduced and verified. Measurement of calibration is distinct from a representation that the output is calibrated or guaranteed; the score is a diagnostic. Full definitions, interpretation ranges, and validation status are set out in the Accuracy and Calibration Methodology at heatmup.com/accuracy, heatmup.com/accuracy-methodology.',)
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF. ('Public reproduction materials and third party validaiton: the resolved-forecast dataset, public calibration ledger, and scoring code are published at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF so the metrics can be independently reproduced.',)
