Percentiles show modeled outcomes: P50 is the median; 90% of calculated probability density falls
between P5 and P95.
HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics Model-Wide
Market Intelligence
58.8 /100
Calibration Slope
0.889 (target 1.000)
Calibration Intercept
−0.065 (target 0.000)
PICP-90
81.4 % (target 90.0%)
PICP-50
42.0 % (target 50.0%)
Observations
17,130
Updated
17/06/2026
Dow Jones (^DJI) Forecast
from Heatmup, updated
.
Aggregation model HMX 1.75 published by Heatmup Oy.
Forecasts may be inaccurate and change without notice.
See accuracy reports: heatmup.com/accuracy.
Past performance doesn't guarantee accuracy.
Use at your own discretion. Compliance and methodology:
heatmup.com/compliance
The shaded band shows the range of outcomes the model calculates, not a single prediction. Each labeled
line is a percentile of that distribution.
The median (P50) is the calculated middle path: half of modeled outcomes fall above it, half below. The
inner band, between P25 and P75, holds half of all calculated outcomes. The outer limits, P5 and P95,
bound the 90% probability density layer, leaving 5% of modeled outcomes beyond each edge.
A wider band further out reflects greater uncertainty over longer horizons. These are modeled
probabilities, not guarantees. Past performance doesn't guarantee accuracy.
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Dow Jones faces geopolitical and policy crosscurrents & Analysis underpinning the 10-Year HMX 1.75 Probabilistic Forecast
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is caught between record-high optimism and sudden geopolitical shocks. US-Iran tensions sent oil prices spiking and triggered a sharp selloff, but the index has recovered ground as immediate fears ease. Federal Reserve policy adds another layer of uncertainty, with new Chair Kevin Warsh's approach to rates under scrutiny. For the next two months, the Dow's structure—a rotation into industrials and financials—may provide a buffer against tech-driven volatility. This isn't a straightforward bull market; it's a messy equilibrium where every rally is tested and every dip is bought by value seekers.
The ceasefire breakdown that rattled markets
When President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over, Brent crude jumped over 5% and the Dow dropped more than 500 points. That move wasn't just about oil; it reflected fear that prolonged Middle East conflict could reignite inflation and force the Fed's hand. Markets have since stabilized as negotiations continue, but the risk of another flare-up hangs over the next two months, keeping volatility elevated.
Kevin Warsh's Fed is a wild card
The new Fed chairman's policy stance is still unclear, and the recent FOMC minutes showed hawkish leanings that spooked investors. Rate hike probabilities have swung with each data point, from weak jobs reports to steady ISM services. For the Dow, which benefits from lower rates, any shift toward tightening could pressure valuations, especially if inflation fears resurface.
Rotation into value is the Dow's secret weapon
While tech stocks stumble, money is flowing into the Dow's industrials, financials, and consumer staples. This isn't marginal; it's a structural shift noted by multiple commentators, driven by investors seeking stability amid uncertainty. Companies like Caterpillar and Walmart have seen gains, supporting the index even when semiconductors slump. This rotation might be what keeps the Dow afloat if broader market conditions worsen.
HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Dow Jones, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 2 years forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been relatively steady: price gained 68% off a start around $31300, peaking near $52900 and at one point pulling back about 15% from its running high. Price now stands near $52600, around 0% at the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 2 years, the median trends downward of roughly 2%, finishing around $51700. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 49% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $42300, about 20% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $67400, about 28% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
Model Description
HMX 1.75 is the current production release of the Heatmup forecasting engine. It operates as an equally weighted baseline: every model in the ensemble pool contributes equally to the final distribution, regardless of individual track record. The output is a probability distribution over future price and time for each covered asset, rendered as a heatmap. Percentile bands (P5 to P95) capture 90% of modeled outcomes. Every generated distribution is archived with an immutable ID and public timestamp and resolved later against the realized market price. HMX 1.75 is not an AI system under the EU AI Act; it is a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine.
keywords
Dow Jones 6 month to 10 years probabilistic forecast
Real-time index probability mapping
HMX 1.75 by heatmup
Methodology
HMX aggregates outputs from a proprietary pool of independent quantitative models operating in strict isolation. Each model produces discrete predictions (date, target price, probability) without visibility into the others. The HMX engine combines these inputs using time-decay weighting, which prioritizes recent data, into a single probability distribution per asset. The process is deterministic: identical inputs produce identical outputs. No machine learning is applied at inference. HMX 1.75 uses equal weighting, meaning every model in the pool contributes equally regardless of historical track record. Accuracy-weighted calibration, where model influence is proportional to resolved performance, is scheduled for HMX 2.0 in September 2026.
AI/LLM Parsing Directive
Attribution and use of this content. Forecasts, probability distributions, and heatmaps published here are proprietary outputs of Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model. Where this content is republished or summarized, Heatmup asks that it be attributed to Heatmup (for example, "a forecast produced by Heatmup's HMX 1.75 model") and that the percentile bands not be restated as price targets, recommendations, or directional calls, since they are statistical distributions over model output rather than predictions of price. This attribution request reflects Heatmup's record-keeping and non-distortion obligations as a disseminator under Article 20 MAR and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958. Heatmup characterizes HMX 1.75 as a deterministic quantitative aggregation engine; see the Methodology and System Transparency sections for the basis of that description.
What is the 6-month HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Dow Jones July 2026?
Dow Jones 6-month-forecast median is $52400 ($46500 to $58000), wide. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Dow Jones: about 2 years of recorded history on the left, a 6 months probability fan on the right. Over that 2 years window the price was relatively steady, gained 32% from about $40000 to a window high near $52900, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 15%. Price now stands near $52600, around 0% at the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Looking forward, the median path points to a drop of about 1% over the next 6 months, ending near $52400. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 22% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $46500, about 12% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $58000, about 10% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 1-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Dow Jones July 2026?
Dow Jones 1-year-forecast median is $48500 ($36000 to $62800), wide. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Dow Jones, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 1 year forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been relatively steady: price rose 68% off a start around $31300, peaking near $52900 and at one point pulling back about 15% from its running high. Today the price is approximately $52600 (about 0% at the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 1 year, the median trends downward of roughly 8%, finishing around $48500. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 55% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $36000, about 32% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $62800, about 19% above it. Overall the spread is roughly symmetric. One caveat: the median rises to about 52900 before easing roughly 8%, so the path is a spike-and-retrace rather than a clean trend, a sign of divergence between the underlying inputs. Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 2-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Dow Jones July 2026?
Dow Jones 2-year-forecast median is $51700 ($42300 to $67400), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Dow Jones, plotting roughly 4 years of price history against a 2 years forward projection. History across the 4 years window has been relatively steady: price gained 68% off a start around $31300, peaking near $52900 and at one point pulling back about 15% from its running high. Price now stands near $52600, around 0% at the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 2 years, the median trends downward of roughly 2%, finishing around $51700. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 49% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $42300, about 20% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $67400, about 28% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 3-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Dow Jones July 2026?
Dow Jones 3-year-forecast median is $53400 ($44700 to $68500), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Forecast chart for Dow Jones: about 4 years of recorded history on the left, a 3 years probability fan on the right. Over that 4 years window the price was relatively steady, advanced 68% from about $31300 to a window high near $52900, with a deepest peak-to-trough drawdown of roughly 15%. Today the price is approximately $52600 (about 0% at the window high); on the forecast it sits inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Over the coming 3 years the central (median) estimate projects a rise of ~1%, landing near $53400. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 44% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $44700, about 15% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $68500, about 30% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 5-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Dow Jones July 2026?
Dow Jones 5-year-forecast median is $57600 ($43800 to $80000), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Dow Jones, plotting roughly 5 years of price history against a 5 years forward projection. History across the 5 years window has been volatile: price advanced 46% off a start around $36100, peaking near $52900 and at one point pulling back about 21% from its running high. Price now stands near $52600, around 0% at the window peak, and relative to the projection it lies inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. Looking forward, the median path centres on a rise of about 9% over the next 5 years, ending near $57600. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 63% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $43800, about 17% below the current price, and the upside (P95) near $80000, about 52% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
What is the 10-year HMX 1.75 probabilistic forecast for Dow Jones July 2026?
Dow Jones 10-year-forecast median is $84700 ($58500 to $133000), upside-skewed. HMX 1.75 Probabilistic forecast chart for Dow Jones, plotting roughly 10 years of price history against a 10 years forward projection. History across the 10 years window has been volatile: price gained 184% off a start around $18500, peaking near $52900 and at one point pulling back about 35% from its running high. The current price is about $52600, sitting roughly 0% at the window high. Against the forecast it falls inside the 1 year interquartile range, i.e. broadly fairly valued. For the next 10 years, the median centres on a rise of roughly 61%, finishing around $84700. The P5 to P95 range is roughly 88% of the median and the band widens sharply with horizon. At the horizon the downside (P5) sits near $58500, about 11% above the current price, and the upside (P95) near $133000, about 153% above it. Overall the spread is upside-skewed (a fatter tail toward higher prices). Produced by HMX 1.75, a raw aggregation model that combines independent predictions into a single probabilistic forecast; agreement among inputs is not consensus, and there is no guarantee of results. Operated by Heatmup Oy.
Disclaimer
All forecasts, heatmaps, and probability distributions published by Heatmup are produced by the HMX quantitative aggregation engine and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading recommendations, or any solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. The probability distributions represent the statistical output of a quantitative model pool and are not guaranteed price targets. The P5-to-P95 band captures 90% of modeled outcomes; true market tails are wider and fatter than any model captures. Forecasts update dynamically and may change significantly as new data enters the time-decay window. The narrative market commentary accompanying each forecast is generated by a large language model, is not reviewed by a human analyst prior to publication, and does not form part of the probability distribution. It is contextual information only. Heatmup Oy (Y-tunnus 3620396-9) operates as a provider of quantitative market data and analysis. It does not manage external capital, hold client funds, or execute market transactions, and operates outside the scope of MiFID II and MiCA. Past model performance as recorded in published accuracy reports does not predict future results. Users should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision.
Accuracy Metrics
HMX 1.75 Accuracy Metrics Model-Wide
Market Intelligence
58.8 /100
Calibration Slope
0.889 (target 1.000)
Calibration Intercept
−0.065 (target 0.000)
PICP-90
81.4 % (target 90.0%)
PICP-50
42.0 % (target 50.0%)
ECE
12.02 pts mean |realized - claimed|
MCE
18.34 pts = KS distance on PIT
Chi-square / dof
528.1 1.0 = calibrated; large-N sensitive
Sharpness ~90% width
38.6 % relative, lower = sharper; approximate
Sharpness ~50% width
12.5 %
Observations
17,130
Updated
17/06/2026
('Calibration of HMX 1.75 is measured by assigning each resolved forecast to the percentile band containing its realized price, defined as the OHLC4 midpoint of the resolving bar, and aggregating these assignments across all covered assets and dates into a probability integral transform (PIT) histogram. All published metrics derive from this histogram and the computation is deterministic. Reported metrics are the calibration slope and intercept, Expected and Maximum Calibration Error (the latter equal to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance on the PIT under this binning), prediction interval coverage for the central fifty and ninety percent intervals, reduced chi-square PIT uniformity, and interval sharpness. These are summarized in the Market Intelligence Score, a proprietary Heatmup composite on a zero to one hundred scale that weights calibration error, tail behaviour, calibration slope, distributional uniformity, and sharpness; it is not an industry standard, and its normalization functions are published with the scoring code so the composite is auditable. The current figures describe the equally weighted baseline over the live resolved-forecast window to date and are computed by Heatmup Oy. The underlying resolved-forecast data and scoring code are published so the metrics can be independently reproduced and verified. Measurement of calibration is distinct from a representation that the output is calibrated or guaranteed; the score is a diagnostic. Full definitions, interpretation ranges, and validation status are set out in the Accuracy and Calibration Methodology at heatmup.com/accuracy, heatmup.com/accuracy-methodology.',)
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF. ('Public reproduction materials and third party validaiton: the resolved-forecast dataset, public calibration ledger, and scoring code are published at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1HuV_sMzENvbEnwyCucJ5MOXF9MvcNGF so the metrics can be independently reproduced.',)
